Lab Polling Reports and Analysis
Academic research, polling, reports, and press coverage from the Democracy and Fair Elections Lab. Lab faculty and student authors are listed in bold.
Academic Articles
Electoral Innovation and the Alaska System: Partisanship and Populism Are Associated With Support for Top-4/Ranked-Choice Voting Rules
What is the impact of the Top-4/Ranked-Choice Voting Rules? Recently, Alaskans voted to adopt a nonpartisan top-4 primary followed by a ranked-choice general election. Proposals for "final four" and "final five" election systems are being considered in other states, as well as ranked-choice voting. The initial use of Alaska’s procedure in 2022 serves as a test case for examining whether such reforms may help moderate candidates avoid being "primaried." Using data from the 2022 Alaska election and a mixed-mode survey of Alaskan voters before the general election, the authors find: (1) the moderate Republican candidate, Murkowski, won under the top-4 system and would likely have lost under a closed partisan primary; (2) some Democrats and independents favored the moderate Republican over the candidate of their own party; and (3) Alaskan voters are favorable toward the Alaska top-4 election rules, but certain kinds of populist voters who are very strong Trump supporters oppose the top-4 election rules. This article was written by Professor Christian Grose and collaborators Andrew Sinclair, Betsy Sinclair, and Michael Alvarez in *Political Research Quarterly.*
Fair Maps in the State of California: The 2020 California Citizens Redistricting Commission’s Successes and Challenges
This research examines the 2020 California Citizens Redistricting Commission process and outcomes, focusing on what worked and what did not. It identifies lessons from California’s 2020 redistricting process and offers recommendations for improving the 2030 cycle, with particular emphasis on equitable representation, Voting Rights Act compliance, communities of interest, transparency, and meaningful public participation, including prioritizing complex and populous regions in mapmaking, strengthening protections and disclosure around racial representation, improving the collection and analysis of public input, broadening and diversifying commissioner recruitment, enhancing commissioner training, and investing earlier and more strategically in multilingual community outreach. The research is based on quantitative analysis of the redistricting process, reviews of hundreds of hours of public redistricting commission meetings, and 50 hours of direct conversations with approximately 40 observers, advocates, civic engagement reformers, current and former commissioners, academics, journalists, and other stakeholders. The research report is written by Professor Christian Grose.
Crossing Over: Majority Party Control Affects Legislator Behavior and the Agenda
Does majority party control cause changes in legislative policymaking? Leveraging a natural experiment in which nearly one-tenth of a legislature’s members died within the same legislative session, the authors identify the effect of majority party floor control on the legislative agenda and on legislator choices. Where previous correlational work found mixed evidence of party effects, especially in the mid-twentieth century, this study finds that majority party control leads to (1) changes in the agenda and (2) changes in legislators’ revealed preferences, driven by changes in numerical party majorities on the legislative floor. The effects are strongest with Republican and nonsouthern Democratic legislators, and more pronounced on the first (economic) than the second (racial) dimension. Additional correlational evidence across 74 years adds external validity to the exogenous evidence. This article was authored by Nicholas Napolio and Christian Grose.
Social Lobbying
This research theorizes that direct social lobbying — the meeting of a lobbyist and public official outside of a formal office — persuades officials to publicly support policies favored by interest groups, because the social environment allows for greater receptivity to interest group messages. A randomized field experiment conducted by a lobbying firm in a U.S. state legislature found that legislators randomly assigned to be socially lobbied more frequently expressed public support for the interest group’s preferred policy than legislators lobbied in their offices or not contacted by the lobbyist. An accompanying original survey of registered lobbyists in 10 U.S. states demonstrates that social lobbying regularly occurs. This is the first research to study direct lobbying via a field experiment, and is authored by Christian Grose, Pamela Lopez, Sara Sadhwani, and Antoine Yoshinaka.
The Demobilizing Effect of Primary Electoral Institutions on Voters of Color
Are closed primaries associated with reduced participation by people of color? This research theorizes and finds that primary electoral institutions barring independent voters from first-round elections mechanically reduce participation in primary elections, and also reduce turnout among registered independents in second-round general elections. Closed primaries have large demobilizing impacts on Asian American and Latino voters, who are registered as independents at higher rates than whites. Using nationally representative and validated survey data, the authors find that open and top-two primaries are associated with higher turnout from independent voters of color in both primary and general elections — implying that party registration status and formal institutions differentially demobilize voters of color and whites. This research is authored by Raquel Centeno, Christian R. Grose, Nancy Hernandez, and Kayla Wolf.
In Milligan (2023), SCOTUS Rejects Gerrymandered Maps That Gave White Voters More Power Than Voters of Color: Seven Big Implications
This piece examines the implications of the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2023 decision in *Allen v. Milligan* for voting rights and redistricting. Unlike the recent 2026 Callais decisions, in Milligan the Court affirmed Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and longstanding standards for identifying minority vote dilution. The article highlights the social-science evidence used in evaluating redistricting plans, and discusses what could happen for political representation had different decisions been made, as in Callais. This was authored by Christian Grose and Lucien LaScala.
Publications
Statewide PollCalifornia Elections and Policy Poll — 2026 Primary
Fielded May 23–26, 2026 among 735 likely voters ahead of the June primary, this survey found Xavier Becerra leading the crowded governor’s race, with Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer clustered behind him for the second runoff spot. Co-authored by Dr. Christian Grose and the CEPP research team.
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Statewide PollCEPP Statewide Poll — Toplines & Crosstabs (Sept. 2024)
A survey of 1,685 likely California voters conducted Sept. 12–25, 2024 on the presidential and U.S. Senate races, statewide ballot propositions, and the L.A. County District Attorney contest ahead of that November’s general election.
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District PollingCEPP: California’s Competitive U.S. House Districts (2024)
Eight parallel district-level surveys fielded Sept. 14–21, 2024 across California’s most competitive U.S. House races — including CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, and CA-47 — plus the open Democrat-versus-Democrat contests in CA-12 and CA-16.
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PoliticoUnbending Becerra and the Primary’s Bitter Close
Politico’s California Playbook covers the closing days of the 2026 gubernatorial primary, as Xavier Becerra held onto a frontrunner position in a race still unsettled among the rest of the crowded Democratic and Republican fields.
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PoliticoElectoral Redistricting Analysis
Politico’s reporting on the redistricting battles reshaping congressional maps across the country, drawing on research and commentary from the Democracy and Fair Elections Lab.
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